Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth

Global financial integration unlocks a huge potential for international risk sharing. We examine the degree to which international equity holdings act as a risk sharing device in industrial and emerging economies. We split equity returns into investment income (dividend distribution) and capital gains to investigate which of the two channels delivers the largest potential for risk sharing. Our evidence suggests that net capital gains are a more potent channel of risk sharing. They behave in a countercyclical way, that is they tend to be positive (negative) when the domestic economy is growing more slowly (rapidly) than the rest of the world. Countries with more countercyclical net capital gains experience improved consumption risk sharing. The empirical analysis furthermore suggests that these risk sharing properties of net capital gains have increased through time, in particular in the 1990s and early-2000s, on the back of a declining equity home bias and financial market deepening. JEL Classification: E52, C33, C53consumption smoothing, Cross-Border Investment, International portfolio diversification, International risk sharing, Valuation effects

Cumulative complexity meta-metrics as an efficiency measure and predictor of PMI during synthetic route design

Functioning as a surrogate for step count, a cumulative complexity meta-metric, calculated along the longest linear sequence of a synthetic route, is demonstrated to be a useful predictor of process mass intensity (PMI). In contrast, common theoretical measures of efficiency such as ideality and convergence, in this case, were found to be of limited use. A workflow and model are presented which allow prediction of PMI from for small molecules (0.9) when applied to a test dataset and a small number of literature examples. Requiring no empirical investigation, this method provides estimates of achievable, long-term PMI for synthetic routes and can be applied at the design phase. The overall procedure has been developed to be amenable to future automation, allowing rapid application across large numbers of synthetic routes

Short-term forecasts of Euro area GDP growth

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Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other `soft' information are valuable for now-casting.Factor Model; Forecasting; Large data-sets; Monetary Policy; News; Real Time Data

Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other ‘soft’ information are valuable for now-casting.Forecasting; Monetary Policy; Factor Model; Real Time Data; Large data-sets; News